Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Moment: What’s Holding Back the Next Big Rally?

Bitcoin’s price has gradually increased, climbing from $96,000 to nearly $97,000 as of today. Although still shy of the coveted $100,000 mark, the leading cryptocurrency shows signs of resilience.

This recovery is unfolding against the backdrop of mixed market signals, prompting analysts to weigh the potential for continued bullish momentum versus the risk of a near-term pullback.

Bitcoin’s Market Momentum at a Crossroads

One recent analysis from Onchain Edge, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlights Bitcoin’s current “critical decision zone.” Using two key indicators—the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio and the MVRV Ratio—Onchain Edge’s findings suggest a market that is not yet overvalued, though caution flags remain.

While the overall on-chain data leans more positive, the contrasting signals highlight the precarious position of Bitcoin’s current rally.

From a bullish perspective, the MVRV Ratio—an indicator that compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value—stands at 2.21, well below the levels that typically signal market tops (3.5–4.0). This suggests that Bitcoin’s current valuation is not overstretched, leaving room for further upside.

Moreover, other indicators such as the Puell Multiple reinforce the notion that Bitcoin has not yet reached overbought conditions.

According to the CryptoQuant analyst, if these macro indicators hold steady and buyers return in force, Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory, potentially reclaiming six-figure territory before any substantial correction sets in.

Possible Bearish Signals on the Horizon

Despite these promising signs, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, which gauges market sentiment by comparing aggressive buy and sell orders, stands at 0.96—below the 0.98 threshold often associated with bullish strength.

Onchain Edge reveals that historically, levels around this range have preceded market corrections, as was the case during peaks in March and November of 2021.

Should Bitcoin fail to break above resistance, this ratio could hint at a short-term top. A sustained failure to climb past current levels may trigger a temporary pullback, providing a cooling-off period before any subsequent rally.

As Bitcoin hovers near this pivotal price point, the market remains finely balanced between cautious optimism and potential downside risk. Onchain Edge concludes that maintaining a level above $95,000, combined with a resurgence in buying activity, could pave the way for a move to new highs.

Conversely, a decline below critical support might lead to a healthy correction before the market regains upward momentum. While the bull cycle appears intact, the coming days may determine whether Bitcoin’s current rally has enough fuel to continue, or if a pause is on the horizon.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView