Dogecoin: Strong Signals from Holders and Market Movements

Dogecoin ($DOGE) has been a mainstay in the world of cryptocurrency, with its meme coin status catapulting it into the public eye. Recent data shows that a significant portion of Dogecoin’s supply, 15%, has remained dormant for 6–12 months, a strong signal of conviction from long-term holders. These holders, many of whom acquired their assets before the November and December rallies, are showing little to no intention of selling, even as the market fluctuates. This long-term holding behavior suggests confidence in Dogecoin’s future and a reluctance to part with assets during volatile market conditions.

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According to Glassnode,The 15% of Dogecoin that hasn’t been moved for the past 6–12 months is particularly notable. This group represents holders who purchased their Dogecoin prior to the major price rally in late 2024. The lack of movement during this period indicates strong belief in the asset’s future value. For many of these holders, the rally in November and December, which saw significant price increases, provided a solid entry point that they are content with. Despite the price fluctuations that followed, their commitment to holding their positions remains unwavering. This behavior from long-term holders speaks to a deep level of conviction and suggests that they see value in holding Dogecoin for the long haul, potentially in anticipation of future price gains.

Rising HODL Waves and Resistance Potential

Since early March 2025, the 3–6 month HODL wave for Dogecoin has been swelling, indicating that many holders bought into the asset during the January bounce. This bounce saw Dogecoin’s price rise from $0.32 to $0.41. As the price of Dogecoin continues to hover around these levels, it is possible that some holders may choose to exit at break-even levels, particularly if the price returns to its previous highs. This could create resistance for the asset, as sellers may look to liquidate their positions to recover the capital they invested.

The swelling of the 3–6 month HODL wave reflects a growing pool of holders who purchased during this recent period of market optimism. Should the price approach the $0.40 mark again, there could be increased selling pressure as these holders look to realize gains or minimize losses. Consequently, the market may face resistance, which could hinder Dogecoin’s upward momentum in the short term.

Another important factor influencing Dogecoin’s market dynamics is the current state of futures open interest (OI). At around $1 billion, Dogecoin’s futures open interest sits well below the November and December 2024 average of $3 billion. This decline indicates that speculation and leveraged positions are not driving the current price movements. Instead, the rally seems to be more spot-driven, with buyers accumulating Dogecoin in the spot market rather than relying on futures contracts.

Alongside the declining futures open interest, futures volume for Dogecoin has also seen a notable decrease. The 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of futures volume has risen slightly from the bottom, but it still remains near the levels seen in October 2024. This suggests that, while there has been some renewed interest in Dogecoin futures, overall trading activity in this market remains relatively subdued compared to previous high points.