One Last Altcoin Rally? Analyst Says Network Activity Will Decide Winners

The altcoin market may be heading into its final major rally of the current cycle, but only projects with genuine network engagement and utility are expected to benefit.

That’s the latest take from Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst, Jamie Coutts, who recently discussed the state of crypto markets. Coutts believes that while a rally could be imminent, it’s unlikely to lift all boats this time.

“I think there will be one more breadth thrust from altcoins,” said Coutts. “The real question is whether that rally sustains for six to twelve months.” He emphasized that only altcoins showing signs of life through renewed on-chain activity and user demand are likely to post meaningful gains.

Altcoin markets are currently showing fatigue. Network usage has cooled considerably. For instance, Solana’s active addresses dropped to a weekly average of 9.5 million in February — a steep decline from November’s 15.6 million, according to blockchain data.

A Rally Hinges on Bitcoin and On-Chain Data

Despite the decline in user participation, Coutts remains optimistic. He anticipates a rebound in altcoins by June, assuming Bitcoin reclaims its all-time highs. “If Bitcoin reaches new highs by Q2, altcoins could follow,” he said, but stressed that traders should rely on a project’s actual usage, calling network activity the “north star” of crypto trading strategies.

The broader on-chain landscape remains dominated by Ethereum, which commands over 55% of total value locked (TVL). Solana, BNB Smart Chain, Tron, and Bitcoin follow, with each holding single-digit shares. 

Meanwhile, the altcoin arena remains overcrowded — CoinGecko reports over 36 million tokens in existence as of January — further muddying the waters for retail investors looking to pick winners.

Altcoin Weakness Concerns

Adding to the uncertainty, typical indicators for predicting altcoin seasons are flashing red. Capriole Investments’ Altcoin Speculation Index has dropped to 12%, down more than 50% since Christmas. Ethereum’s own struggles — down 49% from its recent high — underscore the broader altcoin weakness.

And while Bitcoin dominance hovers near 63%, its reliability as a signal has been questioned. “Bitcoin dominance no longer defines altseason — trading volume does,” noted CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Yu, suggesting that investor focus should shift to liquidity and engagement metrics instead.

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