Has Ripple Raised Its Circle Acquisition Bid to $20B? Expert Shares Why This Might Be Unrealistic

Several crypto commentators have circulated rumors suggesting Ripple has raised its Circle acquisition bid by a massive 4x, but there’s no confirmation yet.

Recall that reports recently emerged noting that Ripple initially offered between $4 billion and $5 billion to acquire Circle, the company behind the second-largest stablecoin, USDC. According to Bloomberg, Circle turned the offer down and focused instead on its upcoming IPO.

Despite Ripple’s growing ambitions in the stablecoin space through its own RLUSD, which holds a market cap of $317 million compared to USDC’s $61.7 billion, Circle concluded that the initial offer was insufficient.
Has Ripple Raised the Circle Acquisition Bid to $20B?
However,

claims surfaced on X, alleging that Ripple had increased its offer to a staggering $20 billion, a massive 4x spike. These claims quickly circulated among crypto commentators, with numerous posts on May 2 echoing the revised figure.

Further, media platform Cointelegraph briefly reported on the $20 billion rumor in a tweet, only to delete it later due to the absence of an official source. Amid the frenzy, a spokesperson for Circle declined to comment, citing regulatory restrictions linked to its SEC quiet period.

However, skepticism has emerged. Vet, a validator from the XRPL’s Unique Node List, advised market participants to treat the $20 billion rumor cautiously. Vet stressed that neither Ripple nor Circle has issued any confirmation.
EasyA Co-founder Shares Why the $20B Offer Might be Unrealistic
Meanwhile, Dom Kwok, co-founder of Web3 education startup EasyA, discussed why the $20 billion offer could be unrealistic. Drawing on his prior experience at Goldman Sachs and Blackstone, Kwok argued that the rumored $20 billion price tag is highly implausible. 

He explained that the $5 billion valuation is a fair estimate based on Circle’s expected IPO and that Ripple’s original offer was in line with this valuation.

More importantly, he highlighted how mergers and acquisitions typically work in financial markets. According to Kwok, acquisition offers usually come with a premium to entice the target company. 

These premiums typically range from 20% to 30% above the baseline valuation. Applying this standard range, he calculated that a reasonable final offer from Ripple would likely fall between $6 billion and $6.5 billion. This range would reflect a 20% to 30% premium on Circle’s estimated $5 billion IPO valuation.

Kwok also addressed a misconception surrounding Circle’s financials. While the company holds $60 billion in collateral to back its issued stablecoins, he clarified that Circle does not own this collateral. 

Instead, the firm earns revenue from the interest generated on those funds. This revenue stream, rather than the raw collateral value, is the basis for the company’s valuation.

Despite the solid reasoning provided by experts like Kwok, investors and industry observers need to stay open-minded. Though the $20 billion valuation appears unsubstantiated, neither Ripple nor Circle has publicly confirmed or denied the figure. 

Until either company releases an official statement, the true nature of the negotiations remains unclear. As such, market participants should not be quick to accept or deny the rumored figure.