Will Markets Continue to Fall When $3B Crypto Options Expire Today?

Around 26,500 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, May 16, and they have a notional value of roughly $2.7 billion.

This week’s event is very similar to last week’s, as derivatives crypto trading has yet to pick up. Spot markets have seen solid growth with Bitcoin reclaiming six figures, but momentum appears to be cooling now as they start to correct.

Crypto Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.99, meaning that the short and long contract sellers are evenly matched. There is also a max pain point of $100,000, around $4,000 below current spot prices, which is where most losses will be made on expiry.

Moreover, this is also the level at which there is the most open interest (OI), or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, at $1.5 billion. Other hot strike prices with high OI include $110,000 and $120,000 as speculators bet on a new all-time high.

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“Market participants are divided on whether Bitcoin will reach a new ATH soon, with many expecting it in May or June but others predicting a rejection before ATH,” said Greeks Live in a market update earlier this week.

“There appears to be growing caution as traders note the market seems overextended, with specific focus on the $105k level as a potential reversal zone.”

It added that there was “defensive positioning” among crypto options traders, and several are “taking profits on long calls and rotating into more defensive positions as they feel ‘everybody rushed in’.”

In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin options, there are around 220,000 Ethereum contracts that are also expiring today, with a notional value of $570 million, a max pain point of $2,200, and a put/call ratio of 1.24. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $3.2 billion.

Crypto Market Outlook

Total market capitalization has declined by 2% over the past 24 hours, falling to $3.45 trillion.

Bitcoin has held on to gains, bucking the trend, with a 1.2% daily increase to reclaim $104,000 during the Friday morning Asian trading session. The asset has whipsawed between $102,000 and $104,000 over the past week, but could start to weaken if fresh capital does not come soon.

Ethereum has remained flat on the day, trading at around $2,570 at the time of writing, having failed to break resistance at $2,700.

The altcoins are generally mixed with losses for XRP, Dogecoin, Chainlink, and Avalanche, and minor gains for Binance Coin, Sui, and Hyperliquid.

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