Bitcoin Risks $100K Retest as Liquidations Top $1B Amid Middle East Tensions

Bitcoin slips below $104K as liquidations exceed $1 billion amid the Israel-Iran conflict. Is BTC set to retest $100K?

The risk-on sentiment in the crypto market is weakening due to the recent Israeli attack on Iran. Amid escalating tensions, crypto market liquidations have surpassed $1 billion.

At press time, Bitcoin is trading below $104,000, with an intraday pullback of over 1%. Is BTC’s decline likely to reach the $100,000 level?
Bitcoin Price Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin recently reversed from the $110,266 resistance level, resulting in a correction of over 5% in the past three days. With the latest 4-hour candle closing below the 200-period EMA at $104,557, Bitcoin is testing a local support trendline.

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Recent candles show lower price rejections, indicating that Bitcoin is struggling to hold above the critical trendline. BTC risks retesting the $101,763 support level, raising the probability of a drop toward the psychological $100,000 mark.

As bearish pressure builds, the MACD and signal lines have moved into negative territory, accompanied by a surge in bearish histogram bars on the daily chart. Thus, momentum indicators reveal a bearish bias, increasing the likelihood of a trendline breakdown.

However, a potential Morning Star pattern forming near critical support could trigger a bullish reversal, possibly pushing the price up to test the 100 EMA at $106,402.
Bitcoin Derivatives
In the derivatives market, trader interest in Bitcoin has declined significantly. Open interest has dropped by 4.18% to $69.81 billion. With this decline, bullish sentiment has weakened, as the OI-weighted funding rate has fallen to 0.0019% from a peak of 0.0082% on June 12.

This sudden shift coincides with $422 million in long liquidations over the past 24 hours, compared to just $21 million in short liquidations. Meanwhile, in the broader market, liquidations have surpassed $1.15 billion.

As a result, the long-to-short ratio has fallen to 0.9223, indicating a bearish tilt in open positions.

Bitcoin ETFs
Despite heightened short-term volatility stemming from Middle East tensions, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to display strong investor confidence. On June 12, daily net inflows totaled $86.31 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of positive inflows.

So far this week, total net inflows have reached $1.07 billion, supporting the case for a continued long-term uptrend.