Citing Bitcoin Dominance, Analyst Says There Will Be No Altcoin Season: Here’s Why

As long as the Bitcoin dominance stays above the Bull Market Support Band, there will be no altcoin season, an analyst has suggested.

Bitcoin’s price recently experienced a slight uptick, trading around $104,800 amid a modest increase of about 0.5%. This price movement followed a brief decline to $103,600, which was quickly reversed by bullish action, pushing Bitcoin back toward the $105K mark. 

This price action comes after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates unchanged. Despite these market shifts, an analyst on X, Luca, emphasized that Bitcoin’s dominance will remain strong.

A significant technical feature of this chart is the Bull Market Support Band, which consists of two key moving averages: a 20-week simple moving average and a 21-week exponential moving average. The space between these moving averages forms a critical support band, which Bitcoin’s dominance has consistently remained above.

This suggests that Bitcoin is outperforming altcoins, and an altcoin season, or a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, appears unlikely in the near term.
BMSB Acting as Support
The Bitcoin Dominance chart illustrates several instances where the BMSB acted as a support level, preventing a fall in dominance.

For example, Bitcoin’s dominance decreased from approximately 56.2% in June 2024 to 54.44% in July of that year, but the BMSB held firm, signaling continued strength for Bitcoin. Similarly, another decline from 59% to 56.61% occurred in late December 2024 into January 2025, but again, the support band kept dominance from falling further.

Most recently, Bitcoin dominance was supported at 61.93% on May 14, down from 65.4% on May 7. It has, however, recovered to 64.9% during this period.
There Will Be No Altcoin Season 
Notably, the Bitcoin Dominance chart also shows a period where the asset’s dominance dipped below the Bull Market Support Band. The instance occurred in early December, when Bitcoin’s dominance dropped to about 54.6%. 

However, this decline was short-lived, as dominance quickly recovered and reached 59% by December 20. While this brief deviation indicated a temporary weakening of Bitcoin’s market position, it was not enough to signal a broader trend toward altcoin dominance.

Luca believes that as long as Bitcoin Dominance remains above its Bull Market Support Band, an altcoin season will not occur.

Luca also shared a separate 12-hour chart, stating that as long as Bitcoin’s dominance continues to hold its Bull Market Support Band, there are no risks of the current movement being a distribution range for BTC.

Analyst Views on Future Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Trends
Other analysts have weighed in on Bitcoin dominance, presenting differing views on its future trajectory. Bitcoinsensus suggests that the dominance could “fall off a cliff” soon, though a slight dip may occur before a potential altcoin season. 

The analyst highlights that Bitcoin’s dominance has been on an uptrend for over four years and may continue to rise, possibly reaching 70% before collapsing to usher in the altcoin season. 

Meanwhile, Dariusz Kowalczyk points out that Bitcoin’s dominance is showing signs of a potential double top pattern. If Bitcoin fails to break through resistance, altcoins could see a capital rotation. However, if dominance surpasses resistance, Bitcoin may be on track for a new all-time high.