Here’s How Bitcoin Volatility Cost a Veteran Swing Trader $35M

A stunning misstep amid Bitcoin’s recent price swings caused by escalating Middle East tensions has reportedly seen seasoned crypto trader AguilaTrades lose over $35 million in just two weeks.

According to a detailed thread posted on X by on-chain analytics account Lookonchain on June 23, the punter’s aggressive leveraged bets unraveled spectacularly as the Israel-Iran conflict rocked global markets and sent crypto prices on a wild ride.

Anatomy of a $35M Meltdown

Lookonchain’s forensic analysis traced the rapid downfall of a wallet linked to AguilaTrades, who publicly celebrated a number 1 ranking on Bybit in late 2024, and claimed to have turned U.S. election predictions into a $50 million windfall.

The sequence in question started on June 8, when the trader moved $39.18 million in USDC from Bybit to perpetual futures exchange Hyperliquid. His strategy was straightforward, aggressively leveraging long positions on BTC.

He initiated his first major long on June 9, making paper gains of around $5.6 million. However, he refused to take profits, a decision that proved disastrous when Bitcoin plunged sharply after Israel made a preemptive attack on several strategic Iranian nuclear installations and military personnel. As a result, he was forced to close this position at a $12.47 million loss.

The investor didn’t give up, though, doubling down with new long positions on June 15 and June 20, both of which saw significant gains. The former bet put him $10 million in the black, while the latter resulted in a more modest but no less grin-inducing $3.2 million in unrealized profit. Once again, AguilaTrades didn’t collect on his windfall, choosing instead to push his luck some more.

Fate wouldn’t be tempted, nonetheless, and over the weekend, things went from bad to worse, with the U.S. executing direct military strikes on Iran, and the Persian Gulf state reportedly voting to close the Straits of Hormuz, a key oil transit chokepoint.

The action saw BTC crash below $100,000 for the first time since the last week of May, liquidating both of AguilaTrades’ positions and causing him losses of $2.95 million and $17 million, respectively. Data from CoinGlass confirmed that he was not alone in his misery, with over $700 million in leveraged positions liquidated on Saturday alone.

According to Lookonchain, the trader made one final dice throw, choosing to go short this time. But, in a cruel twist, Bitcoin bounced back, leaving the luckless investor with an additional $2.33 million loss.

“Don’t Be Greedy”

The analytics platform bluntly summarized the grim lesson:

“Don’t be greedy—take profits. Don’t FOMO into positions during a rally. Avoid using high leverage.”

BTC was trading around $101,429 at this writing, down about 1% in the last 24 hours and 5.2% over seven days. It has shown relative resilience compared to the broader crypto market, which lost 7.1% of its value in the past week, a fact that will be of little solace to those caught over-leveraged.

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