Slow And Steady: Bitcoin’s Current Rise Feels Different—Study

Bitcoin’s recent climb has been calm and measured, a sharp contrast to the explosive rallies of the past. It’s trading above its historical growth path, but far from overheating. Long-time holders remain mostly inactive, while the bulk of trading activity is coming from fresh faces in the market.

Bitcoin Growth Remains On Track

Based on reports by Arab Chain using CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s price is tracking a Power Law trend that suggests a smooth, logarithmic rise over time.

That model creates a curved path rather than sudden spikes. Right now, BTC sits above the expected growth line but well below the upper “red zone” that signals overheating.

The divergence indicator is positive, yet far from levels seen in past bubbles. This pattern hints at natural growth or perhaps the early stages of renewed betting.

Divergence Keeps Room For Upside

Analysts note that staying below the top watch zone leaves room for more gains before panic sets in. In prior cycles, prices shot through that red zone and then collapsed.

Today, Bitcoin is about $50,000 under its most recent peak level. That gap suggests buyers still have breathing room if they choose to push prices higher.

On-chain data from Glassnode shows short-term holders (STHs) are behind most of the action. Around 86% of Bitcoin’s spent volume over the last 24 hours came from wallets active less than 155 days, totaling $18 billion.

Long-term holders (LTHs) accounted for only 14.5% of spent volume, or $3.10 billion. That split means newer entrants are driving swings, while veteran holders stay largely on the sidelines.

Long-Term Holders Show Conviction
That dichotomy between STHs and LTHs tends to indicate intense conviction among core believers. When long-term owners remain in place, price drops tend to be more subtle. Buyers who have hung on for years or months typically view dips as opportunity to add rather than times to sell.

Bitcoin was trading around $114,113 at press time following a pullback from recent highs of about $118K. The daily Relative Strength Index had fallen to 43, indicating a loss of bullish momentum without going into oversold levels. On-Balance Volume has been declining in the past week, indicating weakening buying pressure.

Market Cooling Doesn’t Mean Collapse
Reports have disclosed that this mix of signals fits a market that’s cooling rather than crashing. Traders are taking profits, yet they aren’t rushing for the exits. The overall picture points to a maturing market that still has room to run but won’t likely repeat the manic swings of years past.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView