Tug-of-War Near $3: Can XRP Buyers Overpower the Whale Wall?

XRP price has stalled, and the pause is starting to look suspicious. Over the past seven days, the price has decreased by 4.7%, although it remains up nearly 400% year-over-year. Despite those massive yearly gains, XRP has been trading in a tight band just under the $3 mark. So why hasn’t the rally continued?

On-chain data might have the answer. A sharp spike in whale inflows to exchanges is clashing with persistent retail buying. And just like January, the side that exerts more pressure may decide whether the XRP price breaks out or breaks down.

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Whales Are Back on Exchanges, And That Usually Spells Trouble

One of the clearest signs of whale behavior is how much XRP is being sent to exchanges. On August 7, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of whale-to-exchange flows jumped to 9,298, according to CryptoQuant. That’s the second-highest spike this year, only behind January 18, when the same metric hit a peak and XRP tumbled from $3.27 to $1.70 over the next four months.

The pattern looks familiar: whale flows spike, and price stalls or reverses. It’s happening again, with XRP unable to push past the psychological barrier at $3. History suggests that this inflow pressure often caps price rallies, especially when smaller buyers can’t keep up.

Whale-to-exchange flow measures how many tokens large holders (whales) are sending to centralized exchanges. A rise in this metric usually indicates potential selling pressure ahead. We use the 30-day SMA to smooth out daily noise and identify clear trends over time.

For token TA and market updates: Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

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Retail Buyers Keep Accumulating, But Can They Outlast the Sell Wall?

Not everyone is bearish. While whales send XRP to exchanges, short-term holders have steadily increased their positions over the last month. These wallets, which typically hold for 1 week to 3 months, have consistently bought dips.

On July 10, when XRP was trading at $2.54:

• 1w–1m holders held 4.117% of the supply
• 1m–3m holders held 4.81%

By August 6, those numbers had climbed to:

• 7.657% for 1w–1m
• 5.912% for 1m–3m

That’s a meaningful uptick in accumulation, especially since it mirrors the same behavior seen before XRP’s July rally to $3.65. If retail keeps buying at this pace, it could form a price floor and eventually lead to a breakout if whales stop selling.

HODL Waves reveal how long coins have been held in wallets, allowing us to determine whether short-term or long-term holders are driving market action. Here, we focused on the 1w-1m and 1m–3m bands to track recent accumulation.

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XRP Price Stuck in a Range, But Not for Long

The price has been testing support at $2.94, with multiple daily closes hovering just above it. This is the key near-term zone to watch. If XRP manages to hold above this level and buying pressure builds, we could see a move toward $3.08 and possibly $3.29, where the next resistance lies.

But if whale flows continue to rise and the market sees more sell pressure, a drop back toward $2.72 becomes likely. That level marks the lower end of the recent trading range and a potential breakdown zone.

For now, XRP remains range-bound, but with whales unloading and short-term buyers holding firm, it won’t stay that way for long. The next move will likely reveal who really controls this market.

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