Massive $15B Crypto Options Expiry Looms Today: How Will Markets React?

Around 103,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, August 29, and they have a notional value of roughly $11.7 billion.

This expiry event is much larger than previous weeks due to it being the end of the month, so there may be some volatility in spot markets.

Eyes are also on today’s US July Core PCE report, which is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.79, meaning that there are more long contracts expiring than shorts, as bullish momentum returns. There is a max pain point of $116,000 where most losses will be made on expiry.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, is highest at $140,000, which has surged to over $2.8 billion at this strike price on Deribit. There is also around $1.9 billion OI at $120,000 and $130,000 strike prices as the bull speculators load up on contracts, but $110,000 and $95,000 are still popular strike prices for short sellers.

Additionally, total Bitcoin futures OI currently stands at $81 billion, which has fallen from recent record highs, according to CoinGlass.

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Crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live said in a note on Thursday that the group “shows mixed sentiment with traders closely watching key levels around BTC $112,000 resistance and discussing Nvidia earnings impact on crypto volatility.”

“Some traders expressed relief that 112P positions were saved, while others noted ETH showing weakness, with ongoing debate about whether BTC correlates with traditional markets.”

In addition to today’s tranche of Bitcoin options, there are around 697,000 Ethereum contracts that are also expiring, with a notional value of $3.2 billion, a max pain of $3,800, and a put/call ratio of 0.76. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $15 billion.

Crypto Market Outlook

Total market capitalization has dipped a little this Friday morning, falling to $3.95 trillion.

Bitcoin topped $113,000 in a high on Thursday but has since weakened, falling back to $111,300 at the time of writing. The asset remains down 10% from its all-time high but has found support at current levels.

Ether prices were also down 1% on the day, falling from Thursday’s high of just over $4,600 to $4,475 during the Friday morning Asian trading session.

The altcoins were a mixed bunch, with gains for Solana, Chainlink, and Avalanche, while Hyperliquid and Cronos saw red.

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