Bitcoin Bulls Eye ‘Uptober’ as October Crypto Rally Debate Heats Up

Crypto traders are weighing whether October—traditionally a strong month for Bitcoin—will deliver another rally, even as markets turned lower to start the week.

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization slipped about 4% on Monday, sparking fresh debate on whether history can repeat itself.

A Month With a Bullish Track Record for Bitcoin

October has earned the nickname “Uptober” thanks to a decade-long pattern of strong Bitcoin performance. According to data from CoinGlass, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has finished October in the green 10 out of the past 12 years. 

Bitcoin has not posted a loss in October since 2018, when it fell just 3.8%. During notable bull market years such as 2017 and 2021, the asset surged 48% and 40% respectively over the month.

If Bitcoin were to match similar gains this year, its price could climb to around $165,000 from current levels. 

Optimists point to a supportive macro backdrop: Bitcoiner Kyle Chassé highlighted on Monday that CME futures now show a 92% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. He called the “easing cycle basically priced in,” describing fresh liquidity as “the fuel Bitcoin and crypto thrive on.”

Diverging Views on Market Momentum

Still, analysts are split on whether another October surge is inevitable. Trader “Sykodelic” predicted a short-term dip before a powerful rally, citing a potential move down to $112,500 as a key level. “After we get this over with, it’s on to new highs and the start of the explosive final leg that will push the market into euphoria,” the analyst wrote.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offered a similarly bullish long-term outlook, saying crypto will shift into “up only mode” once the U.S. Treasury finishes replenishing its general account—already above $850 billion—thereby ending a period of liquidity drain.

Others, however, urge caution. Augustine Fan, head of insights at trading software firm SignalPlus, warned that “extremely low implied volatility and upside skews, weakening DAT inflow momentum, and the presence of profit takers” could limit Bitcoin’s upside.

Mei acknowledged that stronger stimulus signals from the Fed could still spark a rally, but for now, longer-term investors may need patience before expecting new all-time highs.

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