Ripple (XRP) Breakout Delayed? Bearish Signals Suggest Further Downside Testing

Ripple (XRP) saw a minor uptick of 1.58% over the past day alongside the rest of the crypto market following last week’s bloodbath.

However, the crypto asset is still facing bearish divergences that could delay the anticipated Wave 3 breakout.

XRP on the Edge

XRP is showing early signs of potential weakness despite a recent rebound from the trendline highlighted last week, according to technical analysis shared by crypto market expert ‘CasiTrades.’ While the respect of this level offers some encouragement, XRP has yet to break above the critical $3 resistance, which remains an important threshold for confirming a new bullish trend.

Until that breakthrough occurs, the analyst explained that the downside tests are still valid, and immediate support levels have been identified at $2.79 (50% retracement) and $2.58 (61.8% retracement). The latest price action, however, raises caution. For one, the upward move from the trendline appears more like a corrective ABC pattern than a five-wave impulsive rally, with the C-wave targets being sharply rejected and bearish divergences now evident on the 4-hour chart.

On the shorter-term 1-hour RSI, XRP is testing the lower support trendline. This level is being closely monitored to track the next move. As such, a drop below $2.69 would force a reassessment of the current wave count, though a test of $2.58 could still align with a broader bullish scenario if maintained.

Breaking $2.58, however, would undermine the bullish market structure and put the macro outlook at risk. For now, supports remain largely intact, and traders are waiting for one of these critical levels to provide the momentum necessary to challenge resistance.

A true Wave 3 breakout would require clean and decisive breaks above $2.79, $3.00, and $3.25. Continued hesitation or rejection at these levels, the analyst warned, would likely indicate further downside testing before any consistent upward movement.

“Watch Bitcoin closely for alignment, and watch for bullish divergence to show up in this next wave down. Once that momentum appears, XRP has everything in place to push for the breakout we’ve been waiting for.”

Quarterly Milestone

Despite near-term bearish signals, some analysts see a longer-term bullish setup that could mirror XRP’s historic 2017 rally. As flagged by analyst Milkybull Crypto, XRP is edging closer to recording its highest quarterly close, a move that may set the stage for a broader uptrend toward $15.

The analyst observed that if the crypto asset holds at or above its current level until the quarter ends, bullish momentum is likely to continue in the coming weeks or months. MilkybullCrypto drew parallels to 2017, when XRP’s quarterly close above $0.02 triggered a massive rally of nearly 37,800%, eventually reaching an all-time high of $3.31 within a year.

In 2025, XRP appears to be following a similar trajectory. A quarterly candle has turned green after years of consolidation, and the token has decisively broken through a major resistance zone around $2.20-$2.30. MilkybullCrypto noted that history may rhyme with another significant rally.

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