What Crashed the Crypto Market on November 4 and Should You Worry?

The broader economic perspective shows few signs to worry and it certainly couldn’t predict what transpired in the cryptocurrency markets at the start of the current business week. Bitcoin traded at $111,000 on Sunday evening, ETH was above $3,900, XRP was at $2.60, and so on.

What followed, though, was a market-wide crash that pushed BTC down to just under $99,000 for the first time in almost five months. ETH turned negative YTD, dropping to $3,200. And these declines took place less than a week after the US Federal Reserve cut the interest rates, US and China made significant progress on the trade deal front, and the inflation numbers in the States were not as high as many feared.

So, why did crypto crash, and why did the market cap go down to $3.2 trillion, thus erasing $1 trillion since the October 6 all-time highs? Here’s the take from the Kobeissi Letter.

Why, Crypto, Why?

The analysts noted that the big answer to this question is “more technical than fundamental.” They believe that some of the key metrics for the industry, such as adoption levels, deregulation, and advancing technology, remain very high, which should be prompting investors to enter the market, not pushing them away.

However, they warned once again that leverage is at “unprecedented levels, which is amplifying moves in the market, such as the $20B liquidation seen on October 10.”

“As a result, when uncertainty arises or technical momentum fades, downward swings are amplified. 300,000 traders are being liquidated PER DAY on average, and the market has evolved into its most reactive form in history amid Trump posts and headlines.”

Consequently, the analysts warned that the short-term price picture points to “larger swings in both directions” due to the excessive leverage used by futures traders, but noted that the long-term thesis is “stronger than ever.”

One of Those Days

Crypto’s crash was not an isolated event, as most financial markets went down on Monday and Tuesday. Of course, their losses, even the 4.5% decline of the Japanese stock market, are nowhere near as damaging as crypto’s calamity, but that’s primarily because of the aforementioned leverage and the size of the actual market.

Consequently, the Kobeissi Letter determined once again that nothing had changed fundamentally and added that such corrections are experienced periodically during bull runs. The analyst concluded that “rate cuts have arrived, deregulation is here, earnings growth is running at 10%+ YoY, and the AI Revolution is accelerating,” and advised investors to “ignore the noise.”

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