Does China Know Bitcoin’s Bull and Bear Cycles in Advance? A Major Claim – Here Are the Details

China was one of the countries that implemented the harshest policies shaping the crypto sector from 2013 to 2025, with regulations seen as directly targeting the global price movements identified with Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle.

China Imposes Tough Regulation on Bitcoin Every Four Years

Over the past 12 years, four major regulatory actions have repeatedly demarcated the legal status, usability, and relationship of crypto assets within the financial system. Here’s a chronological summary of China’s interventions in 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025.

In December 2013, five ministries, led by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), issued a joint statement, providing the first comprehensive definition of cryptocurrency in the country. Titled “Warning on Bitcoin Risks,” the statement explicitly stated that Bitcoin was not a currency, was not legal tender, and that financial institutions could not provide any Bitcoin-related services. This step marked the first systematic restriction of cryptocurrency in China.

In September 2017, seven ministries jointly issued a statement titled “Warning on Risks of Financing Through Token Issuance.” The decision completely banned all ICO processes in the country, instructed project teams to return any funds raised, and designated cryptocurrency exchanges as illegal financing platforms. This intervention, known as the “94 Incident,” shook global markets and led to the definitive end of the ICO era in China.

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The declaration, signed by ten government agencies in September 2021, was considered China’s most aggressive regulatory move to date. It categorized all cryptocurrency transactions and crypto services as illicit financial activities. The crackdown on crypto mining has intensified, and numerous new oversight and enforcement mechanisms have been implemented, with law enforcement working in coordination. This text has been interpreted as an expansion of the scope of all regulations implemented since 2013.

A working meeting held in November 2025, attended by 13 ministries, reaffirmed China’s tough stance on crypto assets. The meeting, which included representatives from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the judiciary, the central bank, and financial regulators, aimed to strengthen oversight of crypto transactions, suppress speculation and illegal activities, and address market “disorders.” Officials reiterated: “Cryptocurrencies do not have the same status as legal currencies, cannot be used as payment, and all related activities are considered illegal financial transactions.”

The alignment of all these regulations to Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle has led some analysts to claim that “China understands the Bitcoin cycle.”

*This is not investment advice.

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