Gemini Gets CFTC License to Offer Prediction Markets in the U.S.

Crypto exchange Gemini Space Station, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEMI), the platform co‑founded by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has received regulatory approval to offer prediction markets in the United States. 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted Gemini’s affiliate, Gemini Titan, LLC, a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license on December 10, 2025, clearing the way for the company to launch event‑based trading products for U.S. customers.

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Under the new license, Gemini will initially offer binary event contracts, essentially simple “yes or no” bets on real‑world outcomes, through its web platform. The company said U.S. users will soon be able to trade these markets using U.S. dollars, with mobile app support planned later.

The DCM of Gemini is approved by the CFTC, which started its licensing process in March 2020, but the purpose of the application was not entirely clear at the time. The approval this week marks the culmination of a five‑year regulatory process, according to Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss.

It is a major change in regulatory openness to accept event trading under federal regulation, and puts Gemini in a position to compete with established players.

Market reaction and stock performance

The market responded positively to the news. Gemini’s publicly traded stock (ticker: GEMI) rose sharply in after‑hours trading on Wednesday, climbing 13.7% to $12.92 before closing down at $11.36. 

The spike reflects investors’ newfound optimism about new revenue streams and strategic diversification. Despite this uptick, Gemini’s share price remains down 64.5% since its public debut on September 12, amid broader crypto market challenges and subdued rallies.

What prediction markets are and why they matter

Prediction markets let users trade contracts tied to future outcomes, for example, whether Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a certain price by year‑end, or the result of political or economic events. 

“Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance,” said Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s President on receiving the CFTC license.

Traders effectively assign probabilities to outcomes based on market pricing. Supporters believe that such markets are able to capture the collective expectations in a more timely and precise way than the conventional polls or analysts.

Growing competition in prediction markets

Gemini’s move places it alongside major prediction‑market platforms that have gained traction in recent years. Kalshi, a U.S.‑regulated exchange, has been a dominant force in the sector, growing rapidly in trading volume and forging partnerships with media outlets to broadcast real‑time probability data. 

Other firms are also expanding offerings. Robinhood Derivatives earlier this year launched a prediction markets hub inside its trading app, allowing users to trade contracts tied to major world events. 

Polymarket, a formerly U.S.‑restricted platform, has signaled a quiet return to the U.S. with partnerships and a relaunch, underscoring increasing mainstream interest. 

Legal and regulatory headwinds

Despite federal approval for some firms, prediction markets have encountered regulatory pushback at the state level. 

Recently, Connecticut regulators directed a number of platforms, such as Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Kalshi, to cease selling event contracts, claiming that they constitute unlicensed sports wagering under state law.

Massachusetts has also pursued legal action against Kalshi, creating further legal ambiguity on the application of state gambling laws.

Outlook and industry impact

Gemini’s entry into prediction markets highlights growing acceptance of event contracts as a regulated financial product. The approval could broaden the user base for these markets and intensify competition. 

Meanwhile, legal challenges and conflicting regulatory indications indicate that the situation will keep changing in 2026.

Investors and users will be keen to see how states and federal regulators strike a balance between innovation, consumer protection, and the classification of prediction markets compared to the traditional gambling and financial products.

Also Read: Prediction Markets Sparks Debate Over Gambling and Insider Trading