Key Highlights
- Bitcoin’s hashrate drop and miner stress may signal a short-term price bottom amid weak activity and mixed investor behavior.
- Long-term holders remain steady while medium-term investors exit, suggesting resilience despite short-term market pressures.
- Historical trends show Bitcoin often gains after hashrate declines, pointing to cautious optimism for recovery in the coming months.
Bitcoin’s network has experienced a sudden miner hash rate reduction, leading to speculations about a possible trough in Bitcoin’s (BTC’s) price. Investment management firm VanEck’s latest report, titled “Mid-December 2025 BTC ChainCheck,” points out that capitulation among miners can sometimes provide a strong contrarian message to long-term holders.
As per the report, during the period from mid-November to December 15, the hashrate of Bitcoin declined by 4%, which was the biggest drop within a month since April 2024. Analyst Matt Sigel, who is Head of Digital Assets Research and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush said, “when hash rate compression persists over longer periods, positive forward returns tend to occur more often and with greater magnitude.”
They noted that since 2014, Bitcoin has posted positive 90-day returns 65% of the time following a 30-day hashrate contraction. This probability increases to 77% over a 180-day window, with an average gain of 72%.
Also, in mid-December 2025, Bitcoin ChainCheck from VanEck refers to an improvement in market conditions hidden underneath. Although market activity is still muted, market conditions have been restored on the speculative side.
The private GEO analysis framework, which looks at Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, and Onchain Activity, presents a tentatively positive scenario. The owners of Bitcoin experienced a very difficult month, considering that prices are down around 9% and 30-day realized volatility has broken the 45% barrier for the first time since April of last year.
Hashrate dynamics and miner stress
The current environment is characterized by a “structural squeeze.” Miners are still experiencing the squeeze in terms of reduced rewards and increased network competition. Miners have had to reinvest in new equipment because the hash rate of the network has been increasing at an average of 62% since 2020. They have also been affected by the price drops, as breakeven electricity costs for 2022-generation S19 XP miners have reduced from $0.12 to $0.077 per kWh in the last twelve months.
Moreover, Chinese mining of 1.3 gigawatts is also believed to have halted due to government concern and demands for energy from AI, taking away around 10% of hash power.
Therefore, the stressful environment for miners can imply a market opportunity rather than a risk. The historic data from VanEck indicates that the more hashrates decline in the 30-day window, the more there are positive outcomes in the 90-day returns of Bitcoin.
For a more extended timeframe, the positive outcomes in Bitcoin’s returns increase when the hashrates are compressed in the 180-day window, thus averaging a gain of 72%. This would mean that the current state of miner capitulation can indicate a near-term trough.
Institutional differences and investment patterns
VanEck further noted the divergent actions shown by institutional buyers. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) added to their positions by 42,000 BTC between mid-November and mid-December, bringing the total to 1.09 million BTC.
However, the holdings of Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) dropped by approximately 120 basis points to 1.308 million BTC. Analysts have attributed this scenario to the dynamics of valuations. Considering the fact that a large number of DATs are trading at multiples lower than the net asset value, the acquisition of funding BTC through common equity has been rendered less desirable.
Investor activity is giving mixed signals. People who held Bitcoin for one to five years have been selling, while those holding for over five years are keeping or even adding to their coins. VanEck notes that short- and medium-term holders are stepping back, but long-term believers are staying in.
Price and market implications
Bitcoin hit a low of around $80,700 on November 22, and technical indicators showed it was heavily oversold. Futures trading rates fell to 3.7–5%, suggesting traders were less eager to speculate.
Activity on the network also slowed, with daily fees dropping 14%, few new addresses being created, and mining power shrinking. Despite these short-term pressures, VanEck sees signs that the market could be preparing to recover.
A few days ago, CEO of VanEck Jan van Eck brought up long-term concerns about the encryption security of Bitcoin when future quantum computing finally comes into the picture. He cited that breakthroughs could compromise network cryptography.
Nevertheless, the support has remained for Bitcoin at this point, and investors are still positioning tactically ahead of the 2026 halving cycle. Mining was also cited by Russian authorities as one of the catalysts behind the ruble’s strength, a nod to the growing global context surrounding Bitcoin.
As of writing, according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $87,877.20, down 1.04% over 24 hours, with a $36 billion trading volume.
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