“We Are in a Bear Market,” Admits Scaramucci, But the End is Near

Speaking at the Consensus Hong Kong 2026 summit on February 11, 2026, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, offered a blunt yet optimistic assessment of the digital asset landscape. “Listen, I mean, we’re in a bear market,” Scaramucci admitted, but he quickly pivoted to a contrarian view. 

Having lived through nine bear markets across his career at Goldman Sachs and SkyBridge, he argued that the current climate of “miserable” sentiment is exactly when the trend begins to flip.

The Institutional Divide: Why the “Old Guard” is Hesitant

Scaramucci identified a significant demographic divide. While younger investors remain bullish, the 60-year-old demographic—who manage the majority of sovereign wealth funds—continue to retreat into gold and silver during currency debasement. 

This institutional “old guard” has largely exited Bitcoin, contributing to the current stagnation. However, Scaramucci views their vocal bearishness as a sign that they are under-invested and primed for a massive re-entry once conditions improve.

The market is currently characterized by “extreme fear.” Scaramucci pointed to a Greed Index score of just 5 out of 100 and an RSI below 30. He noted that while altcoins began their descent in early 2025, Bitcoin only felt the full impact later that year. 

Scaramucci relies on a historical rule of thumb: crypto bear markets typically persist for 12 to 18 months. By anchoring the start of the current cycle to January 2025, he calculates that the industry is now more than two-thirds of the way through the typical duration of a crypto winter. 

“We’re right there,” Scaramucci remarked, comparing the current sentiment to the dark hours just before a “sunrise” in the marketplace.

Solana’s “Stress Test” Success

Despite bearish price action, Scaramucci highlighted Solana as a beacon of “anti-fragile” infrastructure. He noted that Solana’s ability to handle massive liquidity spikes from meme coins serves as a real-world stress test for future institutional use. For Scaramucci, Solana’s near-instant finality is a revolutionary leap over the T+5 (five-day) settlement cycles he experienced at Goldman Sachs in 1989, making it the ideal rail for tokenizing global assets.

Anthony said, “If you’re a technologist and you’re looking at Solana, you’re saying wow

Solana can handle a lot of activity and it’s cheap.”

The Legislative “Floodgate”

The SkyBridge founder predicts a major shift before Memorial Day 2026. This optimism is tied to the expected passage of US crypto legislation. While he cautioned that the resulting laws might not be “perfect” due to banking lobby pushback, he emphasized that “progress is more important than perfection.” Once this legal framework is established, US money center banks will have the “circulatory system” needed to inject massive capital, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward his $150,000 target.

Dealing with the World as It Is

Scaramucci concluded by acknowledging that he “missized” the amount of whale selling and the regulatory slowdown in 2025. However, his message remains clear: the infrastructure is being built, the fear is peaking, and the industry is on the verge of its next major upswing. By accepting an imperfect regulated framework, the crypto industry can finally move into the mainstream of global capitalism.

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