Why ZEC’s Latest Rally May Depend Entirely on One Support Level

Zcash (ZEC) briefly climbed above $470 this week from lows of just under $300. The token has since stabilized near $425 amid a broader market retreat.

A specific price region has now been identified that could decide whether the privacy network’s native asset continues recovering or enters another brutal decline phase.

Danger Ahead Below $360

Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said ZEC has reached a crucial point where its next price move could decide whether the token continues recovering or slips back into a deeper bear market. In his latest analysis, Wedson stated that Alphractal’s CVDD model, which is used to identify major market tops and bottoms, currently places ZEC in a very important zone.

He also highlighted the MVRV Z-Score indicator, which recently dropped close to zero after ZEC tested its Realized Price during the latest market correction. According to Wedson, that on-chain level acted as strong support and helped ZEC rebound after the sharp decline.

Even with the recovery, he stressed that bulls now need to defend the $360 level to prevent further weakness in the market. Wedson warned that if ZEC falls below $360, the privacy token could enter a much more aggressive bear market phase and face heavy capitulation pressure.

In that case, Alphractal would turn its attention back to the CVDD Channel to track possible lower support levels between $48 and $170. He added that $48 would represent the most bearish outcome and was also the level where ZEC formed its bottom in the previous market cycle.

Ironwood Upgrade

Zcash is preparing for a major network upgrade to address concerns around the token’s circulating supply. The Ironwood upgrade, which is expected in late July, will introduce a mechanism allowing node operators to independently verify ZEC supply without relying on developers.

The move comes after the discovery of a counterfeiting vulnerability in Zcash’s Orchard shielded pool. Although developers fixed the issue in June, they admitted there was no reliable way to confirm whether attackers had minted counterfeit coins before the patch.

Once activated, Ironwood will transition users from the old Orchard pool into a fresh pool.

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