Polymarket: decreasing probability that Trump will cut the capital gains tax in 2025

On Polymarket, there is a decrease in the probability on the bet that asks: “Will Trump cut the long-term capital gains tax in 2025?”. In fact, bettors are now attributing it a 33% chance, after the probability was between 55-65% until yesterday.

Polymarket and Trump’s Capital Gains Tax Cut: There is Volatility but Optimism Dominates

The bet on Polymarket regarding Trump and his possible “cut of the long-term capital gains tax in 2025”, is experiencing some volatility. 

In fact, at the moment, the bettors on the famous prediction market platform have attributed a probability of 33%. 

However, it is a decrease

of -35% compared to yesterday and the previous days, when the probability percentage was instead between 55-65%.

As seen from the chart, this bet started poorly from the beginning of 2025, with a success chance of up to 20% until early March, then it began to see more optimism. Another drop occurred between the end of March and the beginning of April, and then only today. 

On the contrary, in mid-April, the more optimistic bettors attributed a probability of success to this bet that reached 80%. While yesterday, May 12, the cryptocurrency-focused prediction platform recorded $201,432 in bets, estimating the probability at 56%.

In general, therefore, despite today’s declining percentage, optimism dominates regarding the possibility that the USA President, Donald Trump, might cut the long-term capital gains tax in this 2025. 

Polymarket and the bet on Trump cutting capital gains taxes in 2025

The optimism expressed on Polymarket for this bet seems not to be visible on Kalshi, another separate regulated prediction platform. 

In practice, on Kalshi, the bet is: “Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on cryptocurrencies this year?” 

At the moment, this bet on Kalshi sees the probability attributed at only 12%. In fact, looking at the chart, the probability has never risen above 20% since the beginning of the year, expressing general pessimism from the bettors. 

Just yesterday, the Republicans in the United States Congress proposed new tax breaks for tip income, overtime pay, private school tuition, seniors, and state and local taxes.

Such proposals are part of the development of a broad budget package that also includes tax cuts and a tightening of healthcare benefits for the poor.

The block of the GENIUS Act

Recently, the US Senate blocked a bipartisan bill aimed at creating a regulatory framework for crypto.

On May 8th, in fact, the vote saw 48 in favor against 49 opposed, thus preventing the approval of the GENIUS Act. 

The possible cause of this blockage is the possible conflict of interest between President Trump and his ties with the crypto industry. Not surprisingly, the GENIUS Act aims to regulate stablecoins in the USA and promote the bull and bear crypto sector in the USA.