Bitcoin Breaks $100K Again as Macroeconomic Conditions Turn Favorable: Bitfinex Alpha

For the first time in more than three months, bitcoin (BTC) has reclaimed $100,000, rallying to a level just 3.6% shy of its all-time high (ATH). This surge comes as tariff tensions between China and the United States ease off, and macroeconomic conditions become positive again.

According to a report from the crypto exchange Bitfinex, favorable macroeconomic conditions and significant institutional demand can keep BTC on a positive trajectory in the meantime. Analysts said that with macro catalysts returning to the forefront, BTC will continue to display relative strength compared with equities and other risk assets.

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One development driving the confidence that has returned to the market is the Federal Reserve’s positive comments on the rate trajectory around the U.S. tariff situation. The comments’ positivity has created a backdrop that has strengthened bitcoin’s recovery and set the stage for a renewed push to new ATHs.

Per Bitfinex analysts, China has paused retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., following “backchannel progress” between both countries. The market now faces reduced geopolitical tail risk and ongoing fiscal support, and with rate cuts still on the table, risk assets, led by BTC, could perform well.

Bitcoin’s resurgence has triggered a fresh wave of capital inflows, reviving market liquidity and participation. Some investors are re-entering the market, while others are de-risking and taking profits. Bitfinex said the renewed capital inflow is evident in the realized cap. This metric measures the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation and tells how much capital enters the market over time.

Bitcoin’s realized cap has hit an ATH of $889 billion, rising by 2.1% in the past 30 days. This indicates a sharp uptick in net inflows, reinforcing analysts’ belief that bitcoin’s recent gains are driven by fresh liquidity and not speculative rotation. While BTC hovered below the $75,000 range, more than 5 million coins were at an unrealized loss; however, the price recovery has reduced that number to 0.7 million.

Institutional Demand Becomes Steady

In addition to bitcoin’s realized cap hitting a new ATH, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded massive inflows in the last two weeks.

Inflow patterns observed by analysts suggest that ETF flows are becoming de-correlated from short-term pullbacks. The demand signals steady allocation from market participants, not opportunistic buying, driven by portfolio mandates, not retail speculation.

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