XRP at a Crossroads: Whale Activity Signals a Critical Price Test Ahead

XRP has struggled to maintain its momentum in recent weeks, with the token slipping nearly 10% over the past month. At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $2.96, as the broader market shows mixed signals.

While assets such as Ethereum continue to post upward moves, establishing a new high, XRP has instead faced consistent correction, leading market participants to closely monitor whether the trend could extend further or stabilize in the near term.

A CryptoQuant analyst has noted that XRP’s current price action comes after an early-2025 rally that saw the token reach the $3.5 to $4 range. That surge was accompanied by a spike in inflows to exchanges, particularly from large holders, signaling significant profit-taking.

The analyst argues that this inflow activity may be exerting renewed pressure on the token’s price, leaving investors to weigh both the risks and potential opportunities ahead.

XRP Exchange Inflow Data Points to Profit-Taking

The analyst, known as PelinayPA, highlighted the significance of XRP’s exchange inflow transactions in a recent analysis. The analyst explained that historically, periods of heavy inflows from major holders have often preceded cycle tops in XRP’s price.

Notable examples included its 2018 peak above $3, the 2021 high near $1.90, and the 2023 rally toward $0.90. According to the latest data, a similar trend has emerged. PelinayPA noted:

At the start of 2025, XRP rallied to $3.5–$4 with massive inflow waves, especially in high-value bands (100K–1M+ XRP). This suggests significant whale selling pressure. Currently, inflows remain exceptionally high, pointing to short-term selling pressure.

The report outlined multiple scenarios depending on whether XRP can hold support near the $3.00 level. In the short term, continued inflows could drive prices toward the $2.8 zone.

However, if the $3 threshold holds, the analyst believes it could serve as a base for a new upward attempt, with resistance levels between $4.2 and $4.5 being key to unlocking further gains.

Over the long run, the analyst stressed that XRP remains in a stronger structural uptrend compared to earlier market cycles, leaving open the possibility of new highs above $5 later in 2025.

Technical Levels Signal Make-or-Break Moment

Complementing the on-chain outlook, traders are also focused on technical indicators. An analyst on X, posting under the name “XRP Update,” emphasized the importance of the $2.95 level, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.

In their analysis, holding above this level could create a pathway toward $3.33 and $3.57, while a breakout beyond $4.6–$5.2 would bring XRP into new price discovery territory.

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On the other hand, failure to maintain support could open the door to further downside, with $2.65 flagged as the next key level. This aligns with the caution expressed in on-chain data, suggesting that XRP is currently at a pivotal stage where the next move may determine its trajectory for the rest of the year.

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