Fidelity Warns Nearly Half of Bitcoin Supply Could Be Locked Away by 2032

Asset management giant Fidelity projects that as much as 42% of Bitcoin circulating supply could become effectively unavailable for trading within the next decade. In a report published Monday, the firm estimated that 8.3 million BTC may be classified as “illiquid” by the second quarter of 2032, a shift that could tighten market supply and influence prices.

Fidelity identified two key groups responsible for this growing scarcity. The first group is long-term holders—wallets that have not moved their BTC for at least seven years. 

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Drive the Trend

According

to the report, this cohort’s holdings have not decreased since 2016, signaling a persistent reluctance to sell. The second group consists of publicly traded companies owning at least 1,000 BTC each.

Data from market tracker Bitbo shows these corporate treasuries currently control more than 969,000 BTC, or roughly 4.6% of total supply, and their commitment remains strong. Over the past four years, this group’s combined balance has increased nearly every quarter, with only a single dip recorded in Q2 2022. Fidelity expects the number of such firms to grow as more companies adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

Price Impact and Whale Activity

Fidelity estimates that by end of 2025, these two groups together will hold more than six million BTC, representing 28% of Bitcoin’s maximum 21 million coin supply. If current trends continue, that figure could rise to 8.3 million BTC by 2032, removing a significant portion of coins from circulation and potentially supporting higher prices over time.

However, the report also underscores a potential risk: large-scale selling by whales. The combined holdings of long-term investors and corporate treasuries now total roughly $628 billion at an average purchase price of $107,700 per coin—double last year’s figure. Any coordinated sell-off could exert sudden downward pressure.

Recent activity offers a cautionary example. Bitcoin whales offloaded nearly $12.7 billion worth of BTC in the last 30 days, the biggest collective sell-off since mid-2022. This coincided with a 2% decline in BTC price over the same period.

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