70% of Polymarket Traders Are Losing Money

New on-chain analysis reveals a stark profitability divide among Polymarket users, showing that gains on the prediction market platform are heavily concentrated among a small group of traders.

According to data shared by on-chain analyst DefiOasis, more than 1.7 million addresses have traded on Polymarket so far. Of these, only around 30% have realized any profits, while approximately 70% have ended with net losses after closing positions.

Profits concentrated at the top

The most notable finding is the extreme concentration of gains. Fewer than 0.04% of trading addresses, roughly a few hundred wallets, have captured over 70% of all realized profits, amounting to nearly $3.7 billion.

These top traders often employ strategies that go far beyond intuition or headline reading.

In contrast, the largest group of profitable users falls within the $0–$1,000 profit range, representing 24.56% of all addresses. Despite their numerical dominance, this group captured just 0.86% of total realized profits, underscoring how marginal most gains are for ordinary participants.

The reality for ordinary traders

To move beyond modest returns, traders must rank exceptionally high. The data shows that earning more than $1,000 in realized profit requires being in the top 4.9% of all trading addresses, placing meaningful profitability out of reach for most users.

Losses, however, appear more evenly distributed. Over 1.1 million addresses, accounting for 63.5% of all traders, recorded realized losses between $0 and $1,000, suggesting that while catastrophic losses are uncommon, consistent underperformance is widespread. At the extreme end, more than 140 addresses have suffered realized losses exceeding $1 million.

How Realized PnL Is Calculated

The analysis uses a realized profit-and-loss framework defined as:

Realized PnL = Total sale proceeds + total redemption remittances – total purchase costs

This method excludes unrealized gains or losses on open positions. As a result, some active traders with large open exposure may currently show negative realized PnL despite holding profitable positions that have not yet settled.

Overall, the findings paint Polymarket as a high-skill, winner-takes-most environment, where market efficiency and information asymmetry strongly favor a small group of dominant participants. For retail traders, the data serves as a reminder that prediction markets, while accessible, remain structurally unforgiving to the average user.

Also Read: Developers, Traders, or Gamblers: Who is Making Money on Polymarket?