XRP Analyst Sees 60% Chance for Major Rally as Ripple Price Reclaims $2

The price of Ripple’s XRP token is testing a critical support level near $2.12 this week, following a rally that saw it become the world’s third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency.

Following that, a prominent market observer has now assigned a 60% probability of even more significant upward moves for the asset.

Testing the Waters for a Larger Move

Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted that XRP remains inside a defined downward channel on its five-day chart. They view the current activity as a “controlled correction” rather than a distribution.

The analyst’s framework suggests a 60% chance of an upward breakout, contingent on the price closing above the 21-period exponential moving average and breaking the channel’s top near $2.30. Such a move, according to EGRAG, could open a path toward targets between $3.10 and $3.30.

“Until then → it’s just a bounce inside the channel, not a breakout,” the market watcher insisted.

Conversely, they see a 30% chance of continued range-bound trading and only a 10% risk of a full decline toward $1.

Trading activity has also backed up the heightened attention, with XRP commentator John Squire noting that the token recorded about $23 million in global trading volume within a single minute, suggesting participation beyond small retail trades.

Data cited by several observers shows there have been strong inflows into newly launched spot XRP ETFs, with the products attracting almost $1.2 billion since mid-November 2025, and absorbing close to 1% of circulating supply in just over a month.

Price Structure, On-Chain Data, and the Road Ahead

According to real-time data from January 5, XRP is trading well above $2.10, reflecting an 12% gain in the last seven days, with the performance helping it overtake BNB in market capitalization on January 3. The move is part of a broader recovery from a late-2025 slump, with the asset now up approximately 4% over the past 30 days.

The short-term trajectory has divided market participants. On one hand, on-chain metrics offer a bullish signal, with data from CryptoOnchain showing the XRP Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance hitting a one-month high, suggesting aggressive selling is easing.

However, some, like Cheds Trading, identified the largest four-hour volume candle in a month as a potential bearish sign, noting a rejection at resistance, while other observers warned of immediate technical hurdles, with sell walls noted between $2.17 and $2.25 that could slow advancement.

All said, the outlook for XRP in 2026 remains wide open, with potential scenarios ranging from a bullish run toward $10, driven by continued institutional adoption and Ripple’s business expansion, to a bearish retreat toward $1 if profit-taking accelerates and broader market conditions worsen.

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