Key Highlights
- Bitcoin is nearing a key $69,000 price level as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return, providing fresh support to the market.
- Glassnode said Bitcoin stayed strong despite global market pressure, showing weaker selling activity and improving investor confidence.
- The analytics firm said Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether it breaks above $69,000 or falls back toward the $63,000 support level.
Bitcoin’s recent recovery is approaching a critical stage as fresh demand from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returns to the market.
In its weekly report, released on July 22, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode said Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered well in recent weeks but is now approaching a price level that could decide whether the rally continues or slows down.
The report said several positive signs have started coming together. Investors are once again putting money into spot Bitcoin ETFs after weeks of withdrawals. At the same time, traders have reduced their bearish bets, and the market has stayed calm even as global events created uncertainty.
Together, these changes have helped Bitcoin regain strength, but Glassnode said the market still has an important hurdle to clear.
Bitcoin holds firm despite global market pressure
One of the biggest surprises came from Bitcoin’s performance during a difficult week for global markets. Oil prices jumped after tensions involving Iran pushed energy markets higher, while major stock markets struggled to make gains. Despite the pressure, Bitcoin continued moving higher and finished the week ahead of both the S&P 500 and European stock markets for the second week in a row.
Glassnode said this kind of price action is important to note because markets that continue to surge during negative news often show that selling pressure is becoming weaker. Instead of investors rushing to exit their positions, buyers were able to absorb the selling and keep Bitcoin moving higher.
Inflation has eased up, offering more support
At the same time, U.S. core inflation fell for the first time in five months, just days before the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting.
Glassnode said this could become an important development because lower inflation may give the central bank more room to consider cutting interest rates in the future. However, it also noted that higher U.S. Treasury yields are still creating pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Glassnode points to $69,000 as key level
While the broader picture has improved, Glassnode said Bitcoin is now entering what it called a “decision zone.”
The firm identified the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, which sits around $69,000, as the most important level to watch. This price represents the average purchase price of investors who bought Bitcoin during the past five months.
Glassnode said many of these investors have been waiting to recover their losses. As Bitcoin gets closer to their average buying price, some may decide to sell after breaking even. That could make the $69,000 area difficult for Bitcoin to move through.
Support continues to build below Bitcoin
The report also found that support below the current price is becoming stronger. Exchange inflows have continued to slow after rising sharply during June’s market decline, showing that fewer investors are sending Bitcoin to exchanges to sell.
Glassnode said a move to steady exchange outflows would provide stronger evidence that demand is continuing to improve.
The report also showed that buying has become more concentrated among large investors holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. Glassnode said these wallets have often stepped in early during previous recoveries. However, it added that a stronger rally would need buying activity from more groups of investors instead of relying mainly on large holders.
ETF demand returns after weeks of outflows
Away from on-chain data, Glassnode said one of the biggest changes has come from the ETF market. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to net inflows after weeks of redemptions, giving the recovery fresh support from spot buyers instead of relying mainly on derivatives trading. Data from farside investor also confirmed this.
The funds had recorded six days of consistent inflows over the last week. The largest flow was on July 20, when it saw about $226 million in just one day.
“Persistence, not size, is what to watch,” the report said, suggesting that steady inflows will matter more than one large day of buying.
Bitcoin faces its next big test
Glassnode concluded that Bitcoin has made progress, but the next move will depend on whether it can successfully reclaim the $69,000 level while ETF demand continues to grow. A successful break above that level could open the way for further gains.
If Bitcoin fails to break through, the report said attention could shift back to the strong support area near $63,000.
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